2019 Federal Election Seat Projections

Projections by Barry Kay, Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP)

Discussion

With six months to go before the upcoming federal election, the following projection was developed using a blend of polls from Nanos, Forum, Angus Reid, Leger and Mainstreet conducted between mid-March and mid-April. Collectively this included over 15,000 individual interviews, although companies using the IVR (robocall) format were down weighted in the process. The accompanying table indicated that the Liberal Party has dropped some thirty seats since the previous LISPOP projection six months ago. The Conservatives have made comparable gains during the period, and it produces the prospect of a minority government.

Liberal support has eroded in every region except Quebec, where they dominate and maintain a 17% lead in popular vote over the Conservatives. By contrast, support levels in Ontario are a virtual dead heat between the parties. The SNC-Lavalin controversy is clearly associated with the Liberal decline outside Quebec, but the Conservative narrative has as yet been unable to create a sustainable wave in their direction.

LIBCPCNDPBQGRNPP
Canada15714827321
Atlantic21101
Quebec6012231
Ontario535513
Prairies/North9211
Alberta0331
BC141792

* 2015 vote share calculations are based on results reported by Elections Canada