2019 Federal Election Seat Projections

Projections by Barry Kay, Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP)

Discussion

Visitors to the LISPOP website will note that there has been no federal seat projection since this past January. That is because there has been a scarcity of polling data upon which these projections are based. Even now they are still limited. As a result the following projection is drawn from polling data aggregated by Eric Grenier at the CBC. At other times our polling aggregation methods are somewhat different. For example, at LISPOP we typically weight the impact of polls by sample size, and down weight those conducted by IVR (robopolls), which has differed from other methodologies.

The CBC data published for October, 2018 provided a 4% national lead for the Liberals over the Conservatives. However focusing upon the regional splits, the Liberal lead in Ontario was 9%, and in Quebec 16%. Along with Atlantic Canada, these are the core of their projected parliamentary majority.

LIBCPCNDPBQGRNPP
Canada18611728331
Atlantic257
Quebec618531
Ontario694210
Prairies/North11182
Alberta3301
BC1712103